About

Hello! I am a PhD Candidate in the Department of Economics at the University of California, Davis. My primary research interest is econometrics, including both theory and applications. On the theoretical side, I focus on policy learning and partial identification of treatment effects. On the applied side, my work is closely connected to a range of policy-relevant questions in health, development, and education economics. I am on the 2025–2026 job market.

You can reach me at yuatuo@ucdavis.edu

Research Interests

Econometrics, Applied Econometrics

Working Papers

Optimal Treatment Under Spillover Effects and Noncompliance

(Job Market Paper)

Abstract. This paper considers optimal treatment allocation in the presence of spillover effects in both compliance and outcomes. I show that when there are two layers of spillover effects, an individual's outcome depends other individuals' compliance types in the neighborhood. By empirically maximizing welfare subject to a budget constraint or minimizing cost subject to a welfare target, I propose an optimal randomized treatment rule based on the characteristics of the target population. I show that the proposed treatment rule achieves asymptotic welfare efficiency with an n^−½ convergence rate for the welfare loss, and is asymptotically weakly feasible. I also apply the proposed treatment rule to an anti-conflict experiment in public middle schools in New Jersey and show that not incorporating both layers of spillover effects can result in misallocation of treatment.

Causal Inference in RCTs with Multiple Treatment Arms

Abstract. When there is more than one treatment group in an RCT with noncompliance, local average treatment effects (LATE) are not comparable because each treatment has different compliers. I propose a partial-identification method to compare two treatments in the presence of noncompliance. In particular, I derive sharp bounds on the average difference between pairs of treatment effects for those who would comply with both treatments, as well as for other subpopulations. I also apply the bounds derived to an experiment evaluating the impacts of different depression treatments on economic outcomes in India.

Work in Progress

Inference for Marginal Treatment Effect (MTE) Estimator (with Takuya Ura)

Identification of Causal Effects in Network Experiments with Noncompliance Using IVs

Teaching

CV

Here is my CV.